Macro
US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread chart
The US 10Y–2Y yield spread is the difference, in percentage points, between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury constant-maturity yields. It's one of the most closely watched summary measures of the shape of the Treasury yield curve.
This chart plots the daily spread series published by the Federal Reserve Board via FRED, calculated directly from the two underlying constant-maturity series. It's an official derived statistical series, not a tradable instrument.
US 10Y–2Y yield spread chart
FRED:T10Y2Y10-year minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity spread (FRED). Daily, end-of-day series.
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At a glance
| Full name | 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity |
|---|---|
| Series code | T10Y2Y |
| TradingView symbol | FRED:T10Y2Y |
| Instrument type | Official statistical series (derived) |
| Official publisher | Federal Reserve Board (via FRED) |
| Unit of measurement | Percentage points |
| Publication frequency | Daily, business days, end-of-day |
| Coverage | United States government debt market |
| Revision policy | Treasury constant maturity series, and therefore this spread, are not routinely revised |
| Data delay | End-of-day; not a real-time or intraday series |
What is US 10Y–2Y yield spread?
The spread is simply the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, expressed in percentage points. A positive value means the curve is "upward sloping" at these two points; a negative value means it's "inverted".
Because it's a difference between two constant-maturity yields, it inherits their interpolation methodology and isn't itself a directly traded price.
How to read this chart
A rising spread (steepening) generally means the 10-year yield is rising faster than, or falling slower than, the 2-year yield - often reflecting expectations of stronger future growth or inflation, or anticipated policy easing at the short end.
A falling spread (flattening), or one that drops below zero, means the 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year: an inverted curve. Historically, inversions at this point on the curve have preceded, by a variable and uncertain lag, several past US economic slowdowns, though the relationship isn't mechanical or precisely timed.
The series is updated daily and can move meaningfully around Fed meetings and major data releases, since these affect the 2-year and 10-year yields differently.
What moves it?
- Near-term policy expectations
- Because the 2-year yield is more sensitive to expected Fed policy over the next two years, shifts in near-term rate expectations move the short end and can steepen or flatten the spread.
- Long-run growth and inflation expectations
- Changes in the longer-run outlook move the 10-year yield more than the 2-year, affecting the spread from the long end.
- Term premium
- Changes in the extra compensation investors demand for holding longer-dated debt can widen or narrow the spread independently of the rate outlook.
- Fed balance sheet and issuance mix
- The relative supply of short- versus long-dated Treasury debt, and Fed balance sheet policy, can influence the spread.
Why people watch it
The shape of the yield curve is used by economists, credit analysts and businesses as one input among several when assessing the likelihood of a slowdown in economic activity, since bank lending margins and corporate financing conditions are affected by curve shape.
Businesses that borrow at different maturities use the spread to think about the relative cost of short- versus long-term financing.
10Y-2Y spread vs the US 10-year yield alone
The 10-year yield level reflects the overall cost of long-term borrowing, while the 10Y–2Y spread isolates the relative pricing of long- versus short-dated debt and says nothing on its own about the absolute level of rates.
A curve can be inverted at a high overall level of rates or at a low one; the spread and the outright 10-year yield need to be read together, not as substitutes for one another.
Frequently asked questions
Is an inverted yield curve a recession signal?
A negative 10Y–2Y spread has preceded several past US recessions with a lag, but the timing and reliability vary, and it should be treated as one probabilistic indicator among many rather than a precise forecasting tool.
What does a spread of zero mean?
It means the 10-year and 2-year yields are equal, so the curve is flat between these two points.
Why does the spread sometimes move opposite to the 10-year yield itself?
Because the spread depends on the relative movement of two yields, the 2-year yield can move by more than the 10-year yield on any given day, changing the spread even if the 10-year yield barely moves.
Is this spread the same as the curve the Federal Reserve itself watches most closely?
The Fed and researchers monitor several curve measures at different maturity pairs; the 10Y–2Y spread is one of the most publicly cited, but not the only one used in official analysis.
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Sources
Written and maintained by the StandardsDesk editorial team. Last reviewed 2026-08-06. The text here is deliberately evergreen: it is not rewritten every time the market moves, and no price or level is quoted anywhere outside the chart itself.
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